Tuesday 12 July 2016

Brexit exit

So now all of the prominent Brexiters have exited. Boris, Gove and now Leasom. I feel like Cameron has deposited a large mess on my doorstep, and all the people who actually helped to extrude the mess have now buggered off.

Still, the good news is that A) the fall in the pound from $1.48 to $1.28 has increased my business income by 16%, and B) the fall in the stock market has now recovered. Commercial property prices are collapsing, but that doesn't affect me.

So far, Brexit has been good for me, but I do feel sympathy for all the people who will be paying 16% more for food, fuel and clothing.

Now that May is PM, at least stuff can happen. She was a Remainer, but is committed to Brexit since the referendum went that way. Here's my forecast.

She'll try to negotiate with the EU. The EU will say "Sorry, not until you invoke Article 50".

She'll try to negotiate with Germany and France. They'll say "Sorry, the EU rules say we can't make separate deals with you"

She'll try to do business with the British Commonwealth. They'll say "Sorry, you dumped is in 1973, since then we've developed other markets, we're not terribly interested in UK trade unless you offer us really really good terms. Plus, you're half a world away."

So then (I'd guess some time in 2017) she'll invoke Article 50, and then she'll try to negotiate with the EU. The EU will say "You can join the single market, but only if you A) commit to free movement of labour, capital, goods and services and B) everything you send to the EU conforms with EU regulations and C) you pay a subscription (the sum of £350 million/week springs to mind).

And we don't really have any leverage.

So we'll accept those terms, with perhaps some wiggle room on the £350 million, which will give us almost a good a deal as we had pre-Brexit, and without the tiresome need to elect UK Members of the European Parliament to have a say in the direction of the EU.

This will be presented as a great victory. The Brexiters will be happy because we've "got our country back", the Remainers will be happy because we'll only be a bit worse off than if we'd Remained, the Tories will crow about how well their negotiation went, the Labour party will celebrate by having another civil war, UKIP will crow about having succeeded in getting independence but will carp about that pesky "free movement of labour" bit, we'll have an election in 2020 and May will be PM until at least 2025.

So that's all good, then.


  1. The rest of the word is fighting to be first to trade with us. Oh and BTW do you really think the EU will continue as normal without us ? The UK is not the only country that will exit other big players will Like us there are plenty of other Europeans who want out ! Lets put it to test with the French and the Germans having elections shortly. Watch the house of cards fall

  2. I'm watching.

    We will serve as a "horrible example" to anyone thinking of leaving the EU; "Project Fear" has become "Project Well we did warn you".