Day 137 of self-isolation - The scientific method

The scientific method

 Why are potential cures of Covid-19 being suppressed?

Because they don't work. Because it is not a good idea to promulgate quack cures. Because some people will believe them, and die as a result.

Let's consider a few examples.

Onions

Keep an onion in a corner of your room.  You might laugh about this, but it's a common belief. Keep an onion in a corner of your room.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/will-an-onion-in-the-room-stop-a-cold-or-the-flu-770452

Has anyone done randomised double-blind clinical trials on this? I don't think do. Why not? Is it because "The truth is out there" and "they don't want you to know"?

Oregano oil

Does Oregano Oil make a good treatment for Covid-19? Again, no-one has done randomised double-blind clinical trials on this. Does that mean that his possible cure is being deliberately suppressed by Big Pharma? Do your own research! If you're diligent, you might be able to find a youtube video that supports this.

Violet leaf oil

You apply this to your anus. Again, we have to ask the question "Why has no-one done randomised double-blind clinical trials on this?" Is this an attempt by the medical profession to cash in on the virus?

https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2020/2/25/applying-essential-oil-to-anus-cures-coronavirus-iranian-cleric

Hydroxychloroquine

You take this together with an antibiotic and Zinc. HCQ was first recommended by Trump. which in one country has turned it into a political issue. But America aside, it's a pure medical issue, and on this, at last, randomised double-blind clinical trials have been done! And have shown that, not only is it ineffective against the virus, but can cause problems for people with Covid-19.

https://thegoptimes.com/watch-internet-erupts-over-frontline-doctors-who-broke-silence-on-covid/?fbclid=IwAR0aFF0ZCbPPZuwO2RWuNDvWg10Y-mMf-_oAK_y7KGSoVJp6-4V85XIGzvA

But doctors say ...

We have frontline doctors, such as Dr.  Stella Immanuel, who claim that hydroxychloroquine and zinc may cure  the coronavirus.

As always in science, there are contrary opinions. There are probably still some holdouts for the phlogiston theory of combustion, and there are certainly people who believe that demons are the cause of some of our diseases.

She is a brave lady, and her opinions are contrary to orthodox opinion. Dr. Stella Immanuel claims "medical issues like endometriosis, cysts,  infertility, and impotence are caused by sex with 'spirit husbands' and  'spirit wives.'"

So what is being suppressed?

What is being suppressed, is false advertising.

In any society, there are people who want to make a quick buck out of a disaster. I know about Oregano Oil, because I have had spam telling me about it, and where I can buy it. I know about onions because someone told me about it on Facebook, and I checked it out. I know about Violet Leaf oil because there are people who really believe it. And there are people who believe that plain water can cure all sorts of things, and that black cumin seeds are a cure for any disease, and there are people that have a miracle cure for whatever ails you, only $25 per bottle, $40 for two bottles.

But.

We've been here before. We know about "confirmation bias" and "cherry picking". And we've worked out a way to distinguish fantasy from fact. We call it the "scientific method".

People try really hard to fool themselves, and when they tell you about the onion, they might really believe that it works, because last year they tried it, and they didn't get the flu. Or that they have a friend to used Violet Leaf oil, and he got better after a couple of weeks.

That's why we have randomised double-blind trials. Here's how it works.

You take a fairly large number of people (a few thousand, on a few dozen) and you randomly divide them into two groups. One group gets the medicine that you're testing, the other group gets a small sugar or flour pill. So the patients don't know who is getting the medicine and who isn't. And you don't tell the doctors either, hence "double blind". You do this because of the "placebo effect", if you give people a medicine that does absolutely nothing, then they will feel a bit better, because they think they've been given medicine. This is a well-known effect. And you don't tell the doctors either, for the same reason.

And then you see if the people getting the medicine did significantly better than the people getting the placebo, and if they do, then you have a treatment that really works.

And you report the details of the test in a scientific journal, and people read it, and look for mistakes in your methodology, and maybe even repeat the trial, and eventually, you have something that works. Like dexamethasone.

So. You can keep your onions, and your Oregano oil, and all the other quack cures that are too absurd to even bother testing. You can keep the potential cures that might have worked, but on testing, turned out not to work.

I'm sticking with science. Because science actually works.

 

Day 136 of self-isolation - A grand day out

A grand day out

On Tuesday, we had our first outing for months. Since March (not counting medical or dentist visits). We visited Ladysolly's brother and wife.

So I put on my varifocals. I haven't worn them for months, and they felt strange at first. Wiggly-vision. We got into the car Foggy the Freelander, fired up Madge the TomTom for guidance, and set off.

We got there in half an hour, parked, and buzzed. We went round the side of the house straight into the garden, where we had a socially distanced lunch in the open air. We talked a bit about the virus, but mostly about family stuff - grandchildren and in-laws. Then the talk turned to bridge, because Ladysolly plays online now and the brother is often a partner.

Lunch was parsnip soup, followed by fish goujons, potato salad and other salad delights. Desert was cherries and ice cream. There was also lemon drizzle cake, one of my favourites. And coffee, and chocolates.

We both ate too much. Well, you have to , don't you?

Day 135 of self-isolation - Obesity

Obesity

I realise that this might be a sensitive topic for some people, but the fact is, obesity has become a political issue.

Obesity is a negative factor in many diseases, such as heart disease, and this has been well known for a long time. But it has also been found that it is a significantly negative factor in Covid-19.

Obesity probably does not affect your likelihood of being infected, but it does have an effect on the severity of the disease.

There are other factors, such as age, skin tone and gender, but there's not much you can do about those. Smoking is also a negative factor, but today, in the UK, only 15% of people smoke.

But 29% of adults in the UK are obese, and 36% are overweight, so maybe it's worth doing somethng about that.

In the case of smoking, the last several years has seen many initiatives against it, and that has brought the percentage of smokers down from 50% to 15% over the last 50 years. Clearly, the various advertisements and other government initiatives, have worked. I'm lucky - I didn't have to give it up, because I didn't start.

Now the UK government is setting its sights on obesity, and is starting various initiatives to reduce that. For example, menus will have to show calorie estimates, "junk food" adverts will not be allowed until after 9pm, and so on.

And it's worked already!

I knew that my weight is more than it ought to be, and I knew that if I get Covid-19, that will make it worse for me. And I knew that I ought to do something about it. I have been trying to lose weight, and I have, slowly, been getting lighter. But this initiative has incentivised me to try harder, and I will be reducing my calorie intake, in an effort to make a smaller impact on my bathroom scales.

I think that there's another way to incentivise people to lose weight. This is just a personal opinion, but I think that if I publicly report my weight, that will nail my colours to the mast. So, as of this morning, I was 104.3 kilograms. And I'll report my weight from time to time. This gives me an extra incentive to lose weight successfully - each time I look wistfully at a piece of cake, I'll remember that I'll be reporting on failure if I succumb to temptation.

If anyone else wants to join me in this effort to lose weight, you'll be welcome.

Day 134 of self-isolation - BCG

BCG

A long, long time ago, I had a vaccination against tuberculosis. At that time, TB was still a big thing in England, although now it's quite rare. Many cows wer infected, but you could get "TB tested milk".  I dn't think you can get that now, or maybe that's always the case. The vaccine was called "BCG", which means Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, and it's still in wide use in countries were TB is a big thing.

I remember that when I got the vaccination, there were side effects; an ache in my arm, and a scab formed at the inoculation site.

But over the last decade, there has been evidence that the BCG vaccine also helps with other viral illnesses, respiratory infections and sepsis.

There was a a randomized trial of 2,320 babies in Guinea-Bissau in West Africa, published in 2011, showing a major reduction in death rates in low birth-weight babies. And a 25 year study of 150,000 children has reported a 40 percent lower risk of acute lower respiratory tract infections in children who received a B.C.G. vaccine.

In Australia, the University of Melbourne is testing the efficacy of the vaccine against Covid-19.

A clinical trial of 1,000 health care workers began 10 days ago in the Netherlands.

Wow! I might already be vaccinated against this virus! Or maybe not - wait till the trials are done.

Antivirus

I remember the early days of the computer virus problem. I saw dozens of "cures" that didn't work, or weren't practical. It was really bad, some made me cringe. And yet they were being sold (hopefully in small numbers) by the vendors who really believed that they would work.

It's the same with Covid-19.

Oregano oil

I got a spam.

Most people know about the unique powers of oregano oil in killing bacteria and parasites, but many  people don't know that oregano oil is also a potent killer of viruses...  Read this article below to see  the effects that oregano oil can have on bacteria, parasites and viruses...
 

Meanwhile in Iran ...

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a device that can detect a contaminated person at a distance of 100 meters, thanks to a magnetic system of resonance.

This looks just like the device that was supposed to detect bombs, copper deposits and oil. Sadly, it's bunk. Maybe this is why Iran is seeing a resurgence of the pandemic.

Day 133 of self-isolation - sack the experts!

Sack the experts

I've noticed a lack of trust in expertise. This has been increasing for some time, and in America it has reached epidemic proportions. Many people genuinely believe that watching a bunch of Youtube videos, makes you better informed than someone who has been studying a subject for several years. It's called "doing your research".

In America, medical experts are being ignored in favour of politicians. People don't even know why a double-blind randomised clinical trial is a good idea.

We are very good at fooling ourselves; wishful thinking. You hear this all the time, "If you build it they will come", "Never give up", "Don't stop following your dream". One of the main  benefits of the scientific method, is to stop us from fooling ourselves, from confusing what we want to be true, with what actually is true. That's why a claim by a West Texas doctor to have found a "silver bullet", because he gave nine patients this medication and it worked, has to be tested - you can't just take his word for it. Nullius in verba.

I first noticed this 30 years ago, on usenet. There was a debate over some particular aspect of how computer viruses worked, and after some to and fro, someone called for a vote. I watched, horrified, as this technical issue was decided by people who didn't have the technical knowledge to have an informed opinion, and yet they had an opinion and voted.

The  strain in Spain is mainly in Catalina

The Spanish quarantine is going to have a very large effect on foreign travel. It came down with very little notice, and now everyone who went to Spain for a holiday, can look forward to 14 days quarantine when they get home.

So, what if you were thinking of going to Italy? Or France? You'd book it a fair while in advance, and you run the risk of a ban coming down while you're away. This has to act as a depressing force on foreign travel.

And during those 14 days self-quarantine, you don't get sick pay, because you aren't sick, which sounds very unfair to me.

Day 132 of self-isolation - Pandemic 2020 - the beginning

Pandemic 2020 - the beginning

A script for a disaster movie. 

Starring Alec Baldwin and Kate McKinnon

Opening shot - New York. Skyscrapers. Busy streets. Crowds. 

Voice over

"Little did we know that this press of humanity was being regarded with envious eyes; slowly and surely they drew their plans". Music bridge "Dum dum dum ... dum dum dum".

Flashback to 2016. Kate McKinnon, alone in a hotel room, crying. "How could this happen? HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN?" Takes off a shoe, throws it at the TV.

Cut to celebrations, Alex Baldwin. "Can you believe it? I'm president! Can you believe it?"

Calendar - September 2019.
Baldwin waves a signed Executive Order, "and by cutting this totally unnecessary pandemic warning program we've stopped wasting $200 million." Applause from the standing group of people.

Cut to China, Wuhan. Establish shot of "Wuhan Institute of Virology". Pan to nearby market. People selling dead exotic animals.

Someone sneezes.

Cut to Wuhan hospital. People in biohazard suits. People in beds. Lots of coughing. People hooked up to scary machines. Doctors and nurses scurrying around, looking harrassed and frightened. Some nurse says "Doctor, I don't think this is just pneumonia"

Cut to Wuhan airport. People in the passenger hall, a mixture of Chinese and westerners. One of them sneezes. We hear the sneeze, but we don't see who it was.

Cut to inside of airplane. Everyone wearing seatbelt. Camera tracks from font of plane to back, then turns and we see the backs of the heads. We hear another sneeze.

Back to New York. New Year celebrations. "Three cheers for 2020!" Fireworks. Crowds and crowds of people.

Meanwhile in Wuhan, the lockdown. Silence. A truck pulls up to an apartment. Two biohazard suited workmen get out, with wooden planks. They board up the entrance to an apartment, get back into the truck and drive away. Inside the apartment, two scared people are sitting. the look at each other, scared. One of them coughs.

Cut to Italy. In a hospital. Beds in corridors, everywhere, all occupied. Doctors and nurses rushing around, wearing biohazard, trying to do their best. One of the nurses pauses, clutches the end of one of the beds. Slowly crumples to the ground. Meanwhie in Spain ... similar scenes. A doctor off duty, crying. Talks direct to camera "800 dead today. What are we supposed to do?"

Back to the Oval Office. Baldwin talking to people, "So we stop all flights from China?" Someone else says "We have to bring our people back home". "OK, we ban all flights from China except for Americans." "That means 40 thousand people" Baldwin says
"We have to bring our people back home".

Cut to Chicago O'Hare airport. Americans getting off the flight from China, happy to be home. One of them sneezes. Cut to JFK. Flights from Italy, Spain, France, UK. Peole passing through customs, immigration, passport control. Someone sneezes. Someone coughs several times. Someone else sneezes.

Back to the Oval Office. Baldwin talking. "There's fifteen, just fifteen, and soon it will be down to nothing."

Back to New York.  The streets are deserted. Where are the people? Zoom in to New York General Hospital. Frenzied scenes like the ones we saw before. Close up on someone being intubated, we see a one centimeter diameter tube being pushed into the mouth and down into the trachea. The oxymeter starts showing 85%, but slowly rises to 90%. Nurses look anxiously at each other. One shakes her head, sadly. 


Back to the Oval Office. Baldwin talking. "It would be great if we could reopen the churches for Easter"

Cut to a doctor in a break room, looking exhausted. She looks at the camera, and we see the tears on her face. She says "One death is a tragedy. A thousand deaths is a statistic. Yesterday, we had a statistic." Newsreader looking sombre. "Yesterday, 2500 people died in the USA of Covid-19"

Fade to black.

Look out for the sequel "Pandemic 2020 - the end the first wave"


















 

Day 131 of self-isolation - Flu vaccinations

Flu vaccinations

Masking in public enclosed spaces in the UK is now compulsory, with a possible fine of £100.

About time! This should have happened months ago.

Last year, 15 million people had flu vaccinations (including me). This year, people aged 50 and over (and 11 year olds) will be eligible for free vaccination - the government is trying to vaccinate 30 million people. Last year it was age 65 and over. This winter, we want fewer people in hospital with flu, to make space for the people with Covid-19 (we hope for the best, but plan for the worst). I'll certainly be getting a flu jab.

Flu is not just a bad cold. in 2014/15, flu killed 28,330 people in England. It's usually at least 10,000. For comparison, Covid-19 has killed 45,000 in March to July 2020.

Of course, anti-vaxxers will see this as a cruel hoax, or an attempt to control the sheeple, or do your own research. I especially love that last one, it's as if spending hours watching youtube videos is comparable to double-blind randomised clinical trials done by real doctors and analysed by real statisticians.

In the USA, another excess deaths figure has been calculated. The number of deaths from every cause over March 1 to May 30 is 28% higher (122300) than the reported Covid-19 deaths (95235). The USA daily death toll is back over 1000 again, the daily new infections number os 60-70k.

Day 130 of self-isolation - a trip to the dentist

A trip to the dentist

Just before lockdown, on the 16th March, I broke my self imposed lockdown for a trip to the dentist. This was a week before the official lockdown on 23 March, and I was looking forward to an extraction. Actually, "dreading" would be a better word.

I had a painful tooth, and I could feel that it was a bit loose, and when the dentist looked at it and x-rayed it, she could see that it was broken - split down by the base. And it had to come out, no two ways about it. So, on 16th March, out it came. It needed a few injections of local anaesthetic, which stung more than somewhat, but the actual extraction was so painless, I didn't even know it had happened until she told me. Then I had a few stitches to help it heal, and that was that. I wouldn't have to go back to have the stitches out, they would deal with it themselves. And they did.

So a week ago, one of my fillings fell out as I was eating a piece of boiled cauliflower, which is the softest food you can imagine. And, a few days previously, another filling had fallen out without me noticing it until my tongue alerted me to the gap. So I booked a trip to the dentist, now that they've reopened. The procedure is completely different now.

First of all, they aren't doing any drilling, because that results in a big cloud of droplets in the air. So it's only fillings and extractions. And they wipe down all surfaces between patients (they haven't decided to use UV to sterilise the room).

So, first they emailed me a form to fill in; routine stuff about health and medications, and I emailed it back. Then I paid over the phone. So far, no face-to-face contact.

On the day, I cleaned my teeth, and arrived on the dot for my appointment, because they don't want patients in waiting rooms. As I came in through the door, there was hand sanitiser that automatically delivered a dollop to me, so I used that. And latex gloves, which I put on. Then up the stairs to the reception area, where an assistant was waiting with a distance thermometer. I passed that test, and my dentist followed me into the surgery. I took off my face mask (obviously) but left my goggles in place.

She gave me a small cup of very dilute hydrogen peroxide (a gentle bleach which breaks down into water and oxygen) to swish round my mouth for twenty seconds. DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME. Only do this if your dentists asks you to. I usually use Listerine, a mouthwash you get in any pharmacy. Then I lay back in the dental chair, with my carry-bag on my lap (I wasn't allowed to put it down anywhere). The peroxide didn't taste of much, but there was a slightly sour after taste.

She did the fillings, using a "temporary" filling material. She explained that this was less resistant to wear, but just as good at staying in place, and that's fine by me, because wear isn't going to be the problem for these fillings. The fillings were done in a few minutes. I thanked her, mentioned the ultraviolet idea, and left the surgery. I put my mask back on before leaving, and removed the latex gloves and dropped them in the bin provided. Another splodge of hand sanitiser, and I was done.

This was one of the least stressful visits to the dentist ever, because I knew there would be no drilling!

Day 129 of self-isolation - Patriotism

Patriotism

How did Governor Andrew Cuomo handle the epidemic in New York State so well, and what can we learn from this?

I watched his briefings most days; the pattern was the same each day. He started off with the facts, figures and graphs. New cases, new hospitalisations, new intubations and new deaths. And we watched as the case numbers climbed day by day to a peak of 11 thousand on April 4th, but we didn't know at the time that this would be the peak. Then it levelled off for a week or two, then it started a decline, which was much slower than the rise.

Deaths followed a similar pattern, peaking at a thousand on April 7th then levelled off for a week, then the slow decline. And again - when we hit the peak, we didn't know it at the time, and Cuomo was straight with us. No false optimism, no dire pessimism, just the facts that we had at the time.

They got the Jarvis center ready as an emergency overflow hospital. It turned out that it wasn't needed, but since no-one knew where the peak in hospitalisations would be, it was a sensible precaution. There were shortages of all kinds of medical equipment; PPE and ventilators especially. Cuomo sourced from everywhere he could, including direct from South Korea. At the time, the 50 states were bidding against each other, driving up prices. There was no centralised purchasing. Cuomo had to make do with what ventilators he had, but shoifting them around from hospital to hospital. No-one was allowed to keep a reserve for the future, there just weren't enough for that.

He got help from other states, and the peak was passed. Every day, Cuomo reported the numbers, and what was happening. And he used patriotism.

But not American patriotism. New York patriotism. New Yorkers are supposed to be tough and smart, and he emphasised that every day. And disciplined, and loving, even though I was a bit sceptical about that, but he gave full credit to the people of New York for beating the virus. Not to himself. And every day, he told New Yorkers that they were fighting the virus, and to what extent they were winning the fight - not with just rhetoric, but with the numbers and the graphs. And politics didn't come into it, it was New Yorkers, versus Covid-19.

And they did testing and tracing, and more testing and more tracing, because testing reveals more cases of Covid-19, and it also tells you where you are. Without testing, you're working blind.

And after a couple of months, genetic analyses of the virus told us where it had come from. Originally China, yes, but in the case of New York, via Italy, Spain, France and UK. Because New York is where most transatlantic crossings go. And although flights from China were restricted on January 31, flights from Europe weren't stopped until it was far too late. The virus hit New York because New York has the main airports from Europe.

Mistakes were made. Not stopping international flights until too late. The epidemic, and deaths, in care homes came as a surprise, although with hindsight ... if only we had hindsight in advance.

New York patriotism. And it worked. New cases per day are below 1000

And deaths are down to a dozen or so per day.

This should be a template for every other state of the USA. If New York can do it, so can any other state. Plus, everyone has the advantage of all we've learned about Covid-19 since March. Such as, proning (laying on the front) a patient helps them breathe, the drugs that have been clinically tested and are useful, like the fact that clotting can be a problem (use heparin), like the fact that the disease can also hit the kidneys, and all the other medical lessons that New York learned the hard way.

But mostly, that it's up to the people. The people have to be given leadership, straight facts and encouragement to do the right thing for their fellow citizens,

Patriotism.

Day 128 of self-isolation - Vaccine by Christmas

Vaccine by Christmas

England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty says that the chance of a vaccine by Christmas is "very low". Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer, says that we will have a vaccine this side of Christmas. I'm hoping that the Oxford vaccine is available this autumn.

Donald Trump has asked that Americans should wear masks whenever they can't maintain social distance. He has finally realised that it's unpatriotic to go without face coverings in situation where an infected person could infect many others.

He's also claiming that The USA is doing very well. "we have done things that few other countries could have done". That's true. Very few other countries could have reached four million cases,  of which two million are currently active, and 145 thousand of which are dead.

Day 127 of self-isolation - A vaccine and a treatment

A vaccine and a treatment

First the treatment. 

It's a protein called "interferon beta", which the body produces naturally when infected with a virus. It's used for antivirus treatment via injection. Synairgen (founded by three professors from the University of Southampton) are offering this drug SNG001 - it's inhaled into the lungs of a patient using a nebuliser. I've used a nebuliser, it's a very simple thing to use. You just breathe in through this mouth tube which has droplets. The one I used was plain water, but this treatment includes the drug, which gets straight to the lungs.

So in a randomised double-blind (meaning that neither the patients nor the doctor knows who got the drug and who got the placebo) trial of 100 hospitalised volunteers and 120 home patients, half got the drug, half got a placebo. It cut the odds of the patient developing severe symptoms by 79%. And patients were two or three times as likely to recover to the point of being normal again. Also, the time needed in hospital was cut from nine to six days.

Three subjects died after being randomised to placebo. There were no deaths among subjects treated with SNG001.

Synairgen will be able to produce hundreds of thousands of doses per month by winter.

The full results have not yet been published, and peer review has not yet happened.

And a vaccine

The Oxford University vaccine is still looking good. In phase one and two, on 1077 healthy adults, there were usually minor symptoms such as fatigue, headache, and local tenderness, but paracetamol was enough to handle them.There were no major problems.

Neutralising antibodies were generated in more than 90% of participants up to 56 days of observation. T-cell responses were induced in all participants.

The phase three trials are ongoing in the UK, South Africa and Brasil; in South Africa and Brasil the epidemic has become very heavy, with  13k and 40k new cases per day.

The UK has dibs on 100 million doses of the vaccine; in a population of 68 million, that should be enough! But 25% of people say that they might refuse to be vaccinated.

Some advice to our politicians - set a good example and be the first to take the vaccine. Unless you have a valid medical reason not to take it. That one demonstration of national leadership would improve the acceptance of the vaccine enormously.

Day 126 of self-isolation - a birthday party

Grandson.3 is one, and there was a birthday party. It was in the house and garden of the other Nanna, and after much thought, we decided to attend via Facetime. The problem was the youngsters, they'd be running around, and wanting hugs and kisses, and how can you say no? And they've been back to school, or mingling in general, and we're still a bit nervous about getting the virus. so we attended virtually.

I had crisps, and chocolate biscuits, and chatted with the adults. Daughters 1 and 2 were there, and grandsons 1 to 3, plus assorted aunts and uncles and a good time was had by all.

Day 125 of self-isolation - flu season

Flu season

Every year, influenza comes round, from October to May. I'd be surprised if the coming autumn/winter is an exception. What causes this annual resurgence?



    Flu (like Covid-19) is spread from person to person, and in the cold weather, people are more huddled indoors, windows closed

    These viruses are killed by UV light, and there is less UV in autumn/winter

    Viruses last longer in cold conditions than hot, so they'll last longer on surfaces and in the air

    Lack of vitamin D affects the immune system, and most people get most of their vitamin D from the action of sunshine on skin. There's less sunshine in autumn/winter


On the other hand - all the measures that people are taking against Covid-19; distancing, masking and hand hygiene are also effective against flu. Also, we have a vaccine for flu each year. Of course, those people who sneer at precautions will continue to attend Covid-19 parties, and will soon be able to attend influenza parties too.

Each year, there's a new version of flu. Flu mutates a lot, and the vaccine for last year's flu, will be much less effective against this year's flu - that's why flu vaccinations have to be repeated each year.

Flu isn't trivial, as anyone who has had it will tell you. It's not like a common cold only a bit worse. Flu kills. There's no knowing what the next flu season will bring, but in America alone, we can expect between 140 thousand to a million hospitalisations, and from 12 to 60 thousand deaths. For comparison, Covid-19 has led to 140 thousand deaths in the last five months.

And the flu burden is on top of the Covid-19 burden.

Those countries who have got the cases of Covid-19 down to manageable levels, and are now opened up (or opening soon) must expect a rise in Covid-19 at the same time as the flu season.

Those countries who have failed to control Covid-19, will soon (three months time) start seeing the rise in seasonal flu, in addition to Covid-19. But there's also the threat of people getting both diseases.

I had flu once. It really knocks you out; I could barely stagger to the toilet, and spent my time sleeping. I recovered, as most people do, but I don't know how the human body would cope with dealing with both at once.

Fortunately, there is a vaccine for flu each year, and although it isn't 100% effective, I have never had any negative effects from the vaccine, and if it reduces my odds of getting flu by 50%, I'll take it, gladly. In the UK that vaccine is free for many, �13 for most - you can get it at many pharmacies. It's similar in the USA.

I'm also hoping that by October, the Oxford University vaccine against Covid-19 will be available to everyone in the UK (and many other countries, because they're aiming to make a least a billion doses) who wants it, and it looks like only 16% of Brits will refuse.

The situation in the USA will be far worse, of course; mask refusal, distancing refusal and vaccine refusal will add up to a huge experiment in what happens when most of a country rejects the advice and benefits of science. The outcome will be an awful warning to the rest of the world.

Day 124 of self-isolation - What do atheists believe?

What do atheists believe?

I've seen this question asked many times, so I'll try to help.

First, the only thing that all atheists have in common, is that they don't believe in the existence of any gods. After that, each atheist can have different views.

Some atheists believe that there is no god. Most atheists don't have this belief, but simply lack belief that there is a god.

Atheism isn't a religion. We don't gather in groups to chant songs, there are no dogmas that we are required to believe, no funny headgear, no special costumes - none of the trappings that we associate with religion

Most atheists accept that evolution is true; there might be a few that don't, but I haven't met any.  And that the world is a globe. And the germ theory of disease. Most atheists accept abiogenesis, but there are a few that prefer panspermia. Most atheists are willing to say that they don't know how the universe came about; perhaps it was always there, or perhaps it came from nothing (that's a whole other argument) - we don't currently know, but research is continuing.

Most atheists object to being told that we have to follow someone else's religious principles. For example, if your religion says that you can't eat ice cream on Tuesdays, then we are fine with you following that rule, but not with you telling us that we must also. So, we eat pork, we draw Mohammed Pbuh, we make jokes about the crucifixion, we don't go to worship on Fridays, Saturdays or Sundays, we think that gay people shouldn't be discriminated against, we think that women should have justice and control over their own bodies ... and so on. But there are possibly some atheists that would disagree with some of that.

Atheists also object to their children being indoctrinated by the government into a religion. Atheists tend to believe that government should keep its nose out of religion. Although some atheists might believe in the abolition of all religion.

Atheists are generally more moral than theists - we don't believe that we have a right to beat our wives, we don't think that slavery is OK, we don't think we should stone disobedient children. But we're OK with eating shrimp, wearing clothes of mixed wool and linen, and planting mixed seeds. Because we don't think that eating shrimp harms other people.

Atheism doesn't come with a specified morality, but most atheists tend to follow the idea of "least harm". So, atheists believe that murder is bad (even for religious purposes). Homosexuality isn't bad as long as it's between consenting adults. Pedophilia is bad because the child isn't old enough to consent. One useful rule of thumb is "How would you feel if someone did that to you or someone you love?" Another useful rule of thumb is "What would happen if everyone did that?" So, by those rules, you would not punch someone in the face, and you would not leave rubbish behind after a picnic.

So I hope that this helps theists to a better understanding of atheism.

Day 123 of self-isolation - midweek shopping

We had an extra delivery yesterday. The problem is that lettuce doesn't last for a whole week, even if you refrigerate it. And while we're about it, strawberries and cherries are much nicer when they're fresh than a week old.

And salt for the water softener - it comes in 25kg sacks, which makes is awkward to pour into the softener. But it has to be filled up every now and then.

Day 122 of self-isolation - Bad news? Good news?

Bad news? Good news?

Kevin Stitt, the governor of Oklahoma has just tested positive for Covid-19. He is the most senior American politician to be infected so far. The Tulsa Trump Fiasco was in late June, so it might not have been caused by that,

When this happened in the UK, our Prime Minister Bojo was in intensive care for a while before he recovered, although we don't know what long-term damage the virus might have done to him. However, he did start taking the virus a LOT more seriously after that - a brush with the Grim Reaper will have that effect. Some clouds have a silver lining.

USA deaths yesterday were 958, new cases hit 70k. Florida, California and Texas all had around 10k new cases each. And more than 100 new deaths each, but it's actually worse in Arizona, where with a third the population of the three big states, it's seeing 97 deaths.

UK deaths were 85, new cases 538. So things are still looking good here. We're going to have an "independent inquiry" into our reaction to the pandemic, so a few knuckles might be rapped. Maybe. Maybe not. My guess is that someone very junior will be offered up as a sacrificial scapegoat.

The reaction to the new UK rule "Mask in shops or a fine of £100" has been mostly acceptance, together with "Why didn't they do this months ago?"

The Oxford University vaccine first results have been released, and the results are good. The vaccine is generating the kind of antibody and T-cell (killer cell) response that the researchers would hope to see. The main phase 3 results will be coming from Brasil, where there is a huge pandemic (yesterday saw 1261 deaths and 40k new infections), which means that vaccinated people are likely to be exposed to the virus (which wouldn't be the case here, there being so few cases each day). In Brasil we're seeing two million total cases (only the USA has more at 3.6 million) so the vaccine will get a thorough test.

A study conducted by professor Yaakov Nahmias at Hebrew University in  Israel has found that an existing cholesterol drug, fenofibrate, could  \u2018downgrade\u2019 Covid-19 threat level to that of a common cold. The findings come from lab tests on human lung tissue infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. So it's an "in vitrio" test, not a test on humans. This means it's "worth investigating further", but let's not get too excited just yet. I've heard of too many "miracle" drugs - I'll wait until the double-blind clinical trial results are in.

Day 121 of self-isolation - Mask or else

Mask or else

From July 24, face coverings will be worn in shops. It's mandatory, with a fine of up to £100. I can't imagine many people being arrested for this, but it does mean that when someone sees a person spreading germs by being unmasked, they can quietly offer them some words of advice, or even a mask, and explain that it is, in fact, compulsory. But we Brits are mostly a law-abiding lot, so I think it will work out well.

Even the mannequins are wearing masks!

But things are not so good in the USA.

Florida

Florida is getting some 10,000 new cases each day, and the latest death number was 132. Yes, businesses are allowed to be open,but  the young folks are having Covid parties, and Disney is open.

In 52 Florida hospitals, there are no empty ICU beds, which means that doctors are having to decide who is likely to have the most benefit from any free bed. Seven hospitals are at 100% capacity. And testing continues, with 28% of people tested, turning up positive.

California

Also pushing towards 10,000 new cases per day, and 117 deaths yesterday. The governor has ordered bars to close, and churches, and indoor dining in restaurants.

Arizona

19% of people tested are positive. Phoenix hospitals are at more than 100% capacity - how is that possible? By putting beds in conference rooms, corridors and waiting rooms.

Texas

Another epicenter, with 10,000 new cases per day and a rising death toll.

Day 120 of self-isolation - Four smegging months

Four smegging months

120 days. Four months. Four smegging months. It's taken four months for the geniuses in our government to work out that if people put cloth coverings over their mouth and nose, it makes it harder for the virus to spread, and costs nothing. Four months while they sway to and fro, always pretending that "we are following the science", which has become a prayer akin to "Our father that art in heaven" and is just as effective.

And still they can't get the story straight. Still, half the senior ministers contradict the other half, and Bojo sits carefully on the fence, just like Jeremy did over Brexit.

Which reminds me - what's happening about Brexit? All I hear is about talks breaking down, and an "Australia deal", which actually means no deal at all. And investment in the friction-generating borders with the EU so that we can pay for a huge number of civil servants to service the necessary paperwork that was unnecessary until we left the EU. And an immigration policy that ensures that care home workers are not allowed in.

And how are we going to finance this immense expenditure over the last four months? I'm not saying it was wrong to pluck the magic money tree, but where's the money to come from? Borrowing, of course. And inflation. And taxation. I expect all three.

Meanwhile in America, refrigerated trucks are parked outside hospitals in Arizona and Texas, and they aren't there to deliver ice cream. Admiral Brett Giroir, the senior medic in the US Navy, is saying that this pandemic won't be controlled until 90% of Americans wear face coverings, while a substantial percentage of Americans - the Karens and the Jimbobs - refuse to wear masks because it will stop them breathing, or blow the viruses back into their mouths. Or something. Freedom.

And the vaccine that we're hoping will come along this autumn? Already the antivaxxers are out in force. The main claim is that at the same time as vaccination, a marker will be implanted under your skin. Other excuses are: the flu vaccine makes it more likely that you get Covid-19, the vaccine hasn't been adequately tested (that one is actually true, as of July, but by the time it's made availale to the public, it will be). And if you're Muslim, there's the fact that vaccines aren't 100% effective, so accepting a vaccine is gambling, which is haram. Yes, really.

Even in the UK, there seems to be a reluctance to accept vaccines (known as "vaccine hesitancy") and I just can't imagine where this came from. No, actually I can. It comes from the dramatic success of vaccines. If we had smallpox sweeping the country every few years, thousands of cases of polio and TB, and the vaccines were only available via a lottery, you'd find vaccine hesitancy would vanish as if by a miracle.

Do the antivaxxers matter? Only a bit. There might be people who genuinely can't be vaccinated, although this is less likely with an mRNA vaccine than the older kinds. It means that there will be a reservoir of infected people for ever, and we'll see this virus for many years to come, just like seasonal flu.

Remember "It will go away in the hot weather"? Well, it didn't. As could have been predicted from the fact that back in February-March, it was doing just  fine in the southern hemisphere. This virus spreads mostly from mouth to mouth (including noses) and when in winter we all go back to huddling indoors together, it will rejoice in our togetherness and eat our lungs.

But there's some sparkles of light. Now we know that the cytokine storm can be ameliorated by dexamethazone (but only  cutting the risk of death from 40% to 28%) and the problem of microclots in the blood can be dealt with by heperin. We do have a better treatment for the disease Covid-19 than we had a few months ago, but only a bit better. And, of course, the Oxford mRNA vaccine is on the horizon, maybe available this autumn.

But not for antivaxxers.

Day 119 of self-isolation - Masks at last

Masks at last

It's obvious to me. It's obvious to most people. And the "masked hamster" test proved it. Masks slow the spread of the virus. They aren't a magic cure, but they reduce the chance of you getting it from someone else, and of you giving it to someone else.

This isn't an issue of "personal freedom" any more than the freedom to drive while drunk is an issue of personal freedom. Because drunk-driving doesn't just harm the driver, it harms other road users.

Imagine you are playing a game, and at some point, you can pick up an item that halves your chance of getting killed. Of course you pick it up. So what if you find an item that can cut 20% off your chance of getting killed? Yes, you still pick it up. So now I'm offering you a piece of cloth that you put over your mouth and nose, and you're refusing it?

Should masking be compulsory? Maybe, that's a good question. But since it's good for the people, our leaders should set the example. Until now, that example has been conspicuous by its absence. But, at last, Trump and Bojo are masking.

Will this make a huge difference? Probably not, but maybe other politicians will follow their lead, and by personal example, incentivise people to do something that they aren't used to do in the past.

Gove contradicts Bojo, and says "Use common sense". What a stupid remark. Common sense is stull you've known for so long, you don't remember when you learned it, like not putting your hand in the fire. But masking isn't common sense, because we're in a whole new situation.

In Scotland, face masks are mandatory in shops. It doesn't have to be a medical grade mask, just cloth covering the mouth and nose. This makes sense because the main spreader of the virus is air droplets, and the cloth mask substantially reduces the amount that you emit.

In Scotland, people are following the rules. Because when you explain to people that something is important, and cheap, and easy - then they will do it. And I love the tartan statement that Nicola Sturgeon is making!

Day 118 of self-isolation - Kanye West

First up - I have no idea who Kanye West is. I gather he is some sort of celebrity - more of a nonebrity. I read that he's a rapper, which is the modern word for "poet". But he's signed up in a bid to be US president in 2020. I'm all in favour of poets for politicians. But maybe they should start a bit lower in the hierarchy.

His campaign slogan is "YES", which might be an answer to the question "Who are you?" "YES".

This isn't the first time we've seen joke candidates. I remember in 2016, there was John McAfee (who I knew well, but maybe you don't) and Donald Trump. McAfee was a guy who marketed an antivirus product a few decades ago. Trump was a reality TV actor.

The point of such a bid is, cheap publicity. The media will have a lot of fun with West, as they did with McAfee and Trump. I am reminded of the "Monster Raving Loony Party" that often contests seats in the UK; West's part is the "Birthday Party". I wonder what his campaign song is.

He is anti-abortion (as are so many in the USA, because they see it as murder) and he's sceptical about a Covid-19 vaccine. I don't really understand how you can be sceptical about something that doesn't actually exist yet (a couple of hundred possibilities are still in development and test). And he calls it "the mark of the beast", which, although I know that this is something to do with the number 666 and the implanting of something in everyone, I don't see what this has to do with a medical procedure.

“They want to put chips inside of us, they want to do all kinds of things to make it where we can’t cross the gates of heaven.” No, Mr West. No-one wants to put chips inside of you, and you can go to whichever heaven you want, any time you want.

“Planned Parenthoods have been placed inside cities by white supremacists to do the Devil’s work."

On Covid-19: “We pray. We pray for the freedom. It’s all about God. We need to stop doing things that make God mad.”

No-one is taking him seriously.

But then, no-one took Trump seriously.

Day 117 of self-isolation - The Waitrose van cometh

The Waitrose van cometh

Weight - 230 pounds. Blood pressure 121/75/59. Blood oxygen 98. I can still go upstairs two at a time. Looking good! But I could lose a few pounds.

A big day today. We have a Waitrose delivery coming, and a Visitation from daughters and grandsons. The Visitation will be held outside in the back garden, with social distancing, drinkies and nibbles. And grandsons running and crawling all over. 

Today the UK Covid-19 death rate was 48, the lowest it's been on a weekday for a four months. And the new case number was 512, also lowest for four months. But the USA is looking like a train wreck; cases increasing, deaths increasing, all pandemic precautions are seen as political and therefore to be avoided by half the people. It's hard to imagine how people can take that attitude, but the virus will do what the virus does, and if they help it along, it will do it faster.

Day 116 of self-isolation - the costs of the lockdown

The costs of the lockdown

We have to recognise that the lockdown has costs, and that's not just economic cost. There are also health costs and education costs.

Hospitals have postponed all "elective surgery". That doesn't mean nose jobs and other cosmetics, it means hip replacements and anything else that isn't emergency works. And postponing cancer treatment will lead to some deaths. Postponing vaccinations will lead to some people getting other diseases.

But these treatments weren't postponed because of the lockdown. They were postponed because of the real risk of a patient coming in for a measles jab, and leaving with an infection of Covid-19, because Covid-19 is so prevalent that hospitals are full of it, and have become even riskier places than before.

There is also the economic slump, and the possible effects of that on health (especially mental health). This is true, but consider this. The economic slump in the UK is about 15%, which  means that the GDP in 2010 was less than now. And somehow, we managed in 2010 (and most of us felt that we weren't desperately poor).

Next, let's consider the costs of masking. Putting a cloth bandanna over your mouth and nose is going to cost less than a cup of coffee. And I cannot understand the people who claim that it interferes with their breathing - how do they think healthcare workers manage several hours per day in a mask? How did John Wayne managed to breathe?

Day 115 of self-isolation - bad news, good news

More cases, more deaths

In the USA, new deaths were 857, new cases 60 thousand. There are especially big numbers in California, Texas, Jersey, Florida and Arizona. The Jersey governor has mandated mask wearing in all public places; the other governors are moving in that direction. Half of America is saying "Just wear the goddam mask" and the other half is saying "No because freedom". I still see this as akin to drink-driving. We give up the freedom to drink-and-drive because it harms other people.

New York is very worried about getting Covid-19 from the rest of the USA. They can keep tabs on people flying in, but in the USA, you can just jump into your car and travel to any state. The problems of the rest of the USA, could cause fresh outbreaks in New York, which would be a grave disappointment.

In the UK, 126 deaths and 630 new cases. So we're still on a downward trend.

In the rest of Europe, deaths are down to a few dozen. new cases to a few hundred, so things are looking very good there. I calculated the deaths per million for the EU+UK, and it comes to 178557 deaths and 514 million people, which is 347 deaths per million, a bit less than the USA now.

Mexico is still a raging inferno, and so is most of South America, especially Brazil which is moving slowly towards the top spot held by the USA.

Australia has imposed a new lock down in Melbourne, and is restricting traffic between the states of Victoria and New South Wales.

India and nearby countries are still rising fast.

In Africa - South Africa and Egypt are the worst, but Nigeria could get bad.

Some good news

The Oxford vaccine is now in three late-stage trials (including in Brazil where the virus is spreading fast and so makes a good testing area, and South Africa). The UK trial (7000 volunteers) started several weeks ago. By the end of August, we should know whether the vaccine is effective, and then regulators could approve the vaccine for emergency use, which would mean high risk groups such as healthcare workers, followed by people who are most at risk (elderly with preconditions).

AstraZeneca will be supplying a billion doses, and the Serum Institute of India will be making another billion doses (of which 400 million will be made before the end of 2020). We're expecting the first 30 million in Britain by September.

The cost of each dose is likely to be just a few dollars (although I would expect that in the UK it will be free). However, watch out for price-gouging from for-profit healthcare companies. I'm hoping to be offered my jab in October, and I will gladly accept it.

Day 114 of self-isolation - air conditioning

 Air conditioning

Air conditioning in houses is rather rare in the UK - our climate is usually such that we don't need it.  But in public buildings, it is necessary. And it's a problem.

We stopped going on cruises a long time ago - Ladysolly used to get seasick, and I used to get an infection. It was only minor, like a cold, but the problem was that I was breathing in the air that 4000 other people had breathed out. They do mix in some fresh air, but it's less burden on the aircon system if they mostly recirculate the air.

It's the same in airplanes, shopping malls, offices and other large public buildings.

They filter the air, of course, but from my experiences on ships and planes, the filters don't stop viruses, because viruses are so small. And suddenly, from this being a minor problem (a few people catch the common cold) it becomes a major issue.

It is possible to filter viruses, but that needs a filter with a MERV rating of 17-20 (used in electronics clean rooms).  If you have a MERV rating of 13-16, that stops bacteria and sneeze droplets, but not viruses. That's the level used in patient and surgery areas of hospitals.

In homes, it doesn't matter much, because a household is sharing germs anyway. But in schools, shopping malls and so on?

So, you see the problem? If the shopping mall has a MERV rating of 5-8, that's what is used for ordinary home aircons. And even 9-12 isn't going to stop coronaviruses, although it would be better than nothing.

 So here's my question. When Bojo allows shopping malls and suchlike large enclosed areas to open, will there be a minimum required MERV rating?

Day 113 of self-isolation - UK case numbers down

This is the 15th anniversary of the London 7/7 bombings. 52 innocent people murdered as they went about their daily business, and many more badly injured.

52 in one day. But now, we'd be happy if only 52 people died of Covid-19 in one day. It's not as bad as the 1000 per day we saw in April, but the 100 per day that we're seeing now is still many more than the other European countries are seeing.

I've already written about the bungling of our government, I won't go through that again. But they're still shy about telling people to mask while out and about. I see going unmasked in public during a pandemic, as similar to drink-driving. You're a danger to everyone near you.

But our daily case numbers are still down, although with the open-up only being a few days ago, it's too soon to see the effect.

Australia is seeing a resurgence of the pandemic; in Melbourne the virus is spreading and Victoria has locked down again. Melbourne will be locked down for six weeks, and it's a full stay-at-home lock down. If we become careless in the UK, we'll get the same problem.

In Brazil, president Bolsonaro (who said that Covid-19 is just a little flu, and who made a point of going unmasked) has become infected with Covid-19.

Day 112 of self-isolation - USA - 31.5 million unemployed

USA - 31.5 million unemployed

Thee are two US government agencies reporting unemployment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 4.8 million jobs were created, unemployment dropped by 3.2 million. BLS claims that unemployment is 17.8 million.

The Labor Department (DOL) reported that the number of people on federal or state unemployment payments is 31.49 million

Which of those is right? My guess is, that just as is the case with anything else American, your opinion depends on whether you are Republican or Democrat.

So, as always with statistics, we need to dig a bit deeper, and look at how these numbers are collected.

The BLS does a survey of 54,000 households. And people fill in a questionnaire. I'm just wondering how someone on "furlough" or just laid off temporarily, would report their status. The BLS web site admits that its numbers are underestimates, because people who are now in a very unfamiliar situation aren't filling in the forms correctly.

The difference is people claiming "Pandemic Unemployment Assistance", 13.6 million people for federal and state combined.

But with the payouts, you don't have to do a survey. Actual money is being paid, so it's easy to count how many people are receiving that money.

So, although I realise that some people will prefer the lower unemployment number for political reasons, it seems to me that the statistical basis for the DOL number is much more solid.

There were 131 million people in employment before the 2020 crises struck. 31.49 million of them are collecting unemployment benefit.

So the current unemployment rate is 24%

Source for 31.49 million unemployed:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20201323.pdf

Day 111 of self-isolation - following the science

Following the science

The Waitrose van came again today, bringing food, tissues and the Radio Times. And I got a reminder to pay a VAT bill that I already paid three months ago.

Last night, the pubs opened, and they were crammed. Indoors, shoulder to shoulder, unmasked. It's the worst possible situation for virus spreading.

On the other hand, theatres and cinemas? Outdoor events? Football but not cricket? First of all, out doors is safer than indoors, because indoors concentrates the virus particles, whereas outdoors they get blown away (and then killed by sunlight). I have a suspicion that this isn't based on "the science", but on the fact that pubs cater to more voters than theatres, and football more voters than cricket.

For some months now, I've been hearing "We're following the science". But you know and I know that there is a lot of uncertainty in many branches of science, and this situation is one of those. I've not seen the "scientific calculations" that led to pubs opening, and cricket not.

And I don't think I ever will.

Day 110 of self-isolation - Free at last!

Free at last!

No, not really. It's just a bit of opening up, and if that leads to an increase in the virus, the reversal in Leicester can happen elsewhere.

Here are the new guidelines.

• You can meet in groups of up to two households 
• When you are outside you can continue to meet in groups of up to six people from different households, following social distancing guidelines
• Additional businesses and venues, including restaurants, pubs, cinemas, visitor attractions, hotels, and campsites will be able to open
• Other public places, such as libraries, community centres, places of worship, outdoor playgrounds and outdoor gyms will be able to open
• Stay overnight away from your home with your own household or support bubble, or with members of one other household
• It will be against the law to gather in groups larger than 30 people, except for a limited set of circumstances to be set out in law

Pubs. That's the important thing. And why can we do this? Cases are down from 5000/day to a few hundred per day; deaths down from 1000/day down to a bit more than 100. Still too high, of course.

 At Drsolly Towers, we now have our part time cleaner coming in two days each week, and we're having picnics in the back garden with daughters and family. So, we've opened up slightly, but not as much as the rest of the country. We closed down before Bojo the Clown said, and we're opening up later than he wants.

Day 109 of self-isolation - A scammer is spanked

A scammer is spanked

I got a phone call from Mark at Microsoft Department. They've billed me for £299, do I want to cancel this? "Yes please," and the game was afoot.

We did some preliminary stuff - it wouldn't do to be too eager to fall for their scam. So I asked them which credit card this was on, and, obviously, they wouldn't tell me, because "this is a recorded line".

So then we got down to the meat of the scam. He talked me though going to their web site www.eonlinerefund.com. I did a whois on that, and it's based in West Bengal, India. No surprise there.

At their web site, there were several remote control possibilities, "Remote PC", "Anyplace", "Supremo" and others. He told me to click on Remote PC, which I did. A few clicks later, he gave me their code number to use. Bingo! Perfect. So we continued, and then I told him that my computer rebooted. So he talked me though going to "Remote PC" again, same effect. So he tried Anyplace. Similar problem. And then Anydesk. And guess what - rebooted again.

At that point, he became suspicious, and accused me of wasting his time. Well, yes. About two hours, altogether. But I didn't admit it, and went into a long riff about how he had called me, and he was rebooting my computer, and I want my £299 back, and I'm going to tell my credit card company, and just as I stopped to take breath, he hung up on me.

But it doesn't end there.

I phoned "Remote PC". I soon got through to someone who was also a security professional, and I told him what had happened, including that nine digit code number, which will allow the Remote PC people to track down who it is (I also told him the IP address of the web site, and the fact that the whois identified it as West Bengal).

He took the whole thing very seriously - no-ne wants their software to be used by a scammer. I think they've had a few reports of this before, but even if they hadn't, everyone knows that this is going on. The difference in this case, was that nine digit code number. I do believe that they will take action.

I also suggestedd that, once they hae the culprits identified, that they contact the other companies whose remote access software is being used for scamming.

It's nice to do my bit in closing down these criminals.