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Saturday, 10 October 2020

Day 208 of self-isolation - Situation in Europe

The Situation in Europe

In Spain, we're in the middle of the second wave. I'm glad to report that daily case numbers are on a strong downtrend, but the daily deaths are still rising  - the latest number is 241.

In France the second wave is still rising rapidly. The latest daily case number is 20339, about four times as many as in the first wave.

In Italy, the second wave is on a strong uptrend, and could soon equal the worst of March/April.

In Germany, the second wave is on a strong uptrend, and looks like it will reach the levels of last spring quite soon. 

In the UK we're on the second wave, and the numbers of new cases are about three times as much as last March/April, and still rising fast.

So it looks awful, but it's not as bad as it looks. The CFR (case fatality rate, the number of deaths divided by the number of cases) is a LOT lower than it was last spring. That's partly because we now have better treatments than we did back then, and partly because we're now detecting the virus much sooner. Meaning, not at the point when the infected person is already gasping for breath.

In the UK, the test-and-trace system seems to have completely broken; only 25% of conacts are being traced within a short period of time. That's what happens when you put a jockey in charge of an IT system.



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